Maybe it is just because we are all hyper-focused on our favorite team, but it seems like there is a focus on how experienced Atlantic 10 teams are than there is in most conferences. Recent preseason favorites like St. Bonaventure and Richmond last season and Saint Louis and Dayton this season were partly favored because of the core of players they were bringing back. With SLU and Dayton this season, it remains to be seen how they will finish conference play but last season the Bonnies and Spiders did not live up to expectations in the A10 regular season (of course, Richmond utilized a run in the Atlantic 10 tournament to make March Madness so all’s well that ends well).
Friend of the blog Petey Buckets recently highlighted a tweet other friend of the blog SBUnfurled had discussing comments former La Salle coach Dr. John Giannini made about why experience for a team might not be a good thing and why a team could be “too old”. Dr. John’s remarks are insightful from someone who would know about why conventional thinking about experience in college basketball might not be the case. Can we try to quantify what Dr. John is talking about though?
We are certainly going to try friends, and our pal Ken Pomeroy can help! Looking at the top 50 teams on kenpom.com each of the last five seasons, we can examine just how experienced those teams typically are. We do this by finding the percentage of returning minutes and average years of experience each of these top teams have according to Ken Pom.
We see above that last season saw the smallest percentage of returning minutes on average for the Ken Pom top 50. In addition for the past five seasons, all of the top 50 Ken Pom teams had only around half of their minutes from the prior season return to their teams. The graph has also split “Power 5” and “Non-Power 5 schools” in the top 50 to see if there is much difference between the “big” and “smaller” schools. Non-Power 5 schools that make the top 50 like we have in the Atlantic 10 (well, other seasons besides this current one…) have remained consistent in averaging returning 54-56% of their minutes from the prior season. The top Power 5 teams however saw nearly a 7% decline in returning minutes last season after consistently having 51-53% of minutes return. So while we typically see schools on a level similar to the A10 return more minutes each year over Power 5 schools, all of the best teams in the country in recent seasons are returning only roughly around half the minutes from the previous season.
Along with the minutes the best teams in college basketball are bringing back each season, we can also use Ken Pom to get the average years of experience these top teams have over the past five seasons. In the graph above we see that the top 50 teams on Ken Pom on average have typically less than two years of experience per player on their roster. Similar to the returning minutes metric we looked at previously, non-Power 5 teams that make the top 50 had more experience on average than the top Power 5 schools did though those smaller schools still averaged 2 years of experience or less over the past five seasons. We would expect non-Power 5 teams to have more experience with most college players leaving early for the NBA coming from Power 5 schools. At all levels though, the best teams in the country recently have not been typically filled with players with tons of experience.
Though these good teams in recent seasons aren’t averaging more than two seasons worth of experience, we did see a noticeable increase in the last two seasons at all levels compared to prior seasons. Power 5 schools increased their average years of experience from 2021 to 2022 by 0.1 years, non-Power 5 increased by 0.19 years and on average all Ken Pom top 50 schools saw their average years of experience increase by 0.14. This seems like quantification of the impact the transfer portal and relaxation of transfer rules have made. Players with experience can move on to different teams without sitting out and play right away. It will be interesting to see if this trend of increases in experience for teams continues or if there is a leveling out with the portal.
So, if the best teams in the country the last few seasons are typically bringing back roughly 50% of their minutes from the prior season and have a little less than 2 years of experience per player, how do one of the preseason favorites from the Atlantic 10 this season and teams from recent A10 history compare? First we will look at this season’s Saint Louis Billikens, who at the time of writing were 10-6 on the season, 2-1 in A10 play and sit 95th in the NCAA’s NET Ranking. Given the preseason expectations for the Billikens, this is a disappointment though much of these expectations were driven from Yuri Collins not leaving for greener pastures, Gibson Jimmerson and Francis Okoro gaining another year of experience and Javonte Perkins returning from injury. Looking at SLU’s experience numbers on Ken Pom though, we see they average 3.07 years of experience and brought back 60.7% of the minutes from the prior year. Could the Billikens be a prime example of what Dr. John was talking about where the grind of the college game each year has cancelled out the benefits experience brings? There’s still time to turn it around this season for SLU, but up to this point it seems so.
While we don’t know the end of SLU’s story this season, an Atlantic 10 team last season was perhaps the prime example of returning successful players not guaranteeing continued success. While there were certainly other factors worth examining last season, the 2021-22 St. Bonaventure Bonnies famously brought back all five starters from the team the previous season that won the A10 regular season and tournament. The “Iron Man Five” couldn’t repeat the act in 2021-22, finishing their Atlantic 10 career with a missed Kyle Lofton free throw in the A10 tournament (though the five did get a Bonnies encore during their run in the NIT). It is perhaps not surprising when we look at Bona’s experience stats on Ken Pom for that season, they had 82.5% of their minutes from the prior season returning and averaged 2.78 years of seasons worth of experience that season. With four of the “Iron Man Five” playing at different schools now, the 2021-22 St. Bonaventure Bonnies are one of the better examples of experience not translating to success lately in college basketball.
Now does having over 50% returning minutes and over 2 years of average experience an indicator of an unsuccessful season? Not necessarily. The 2019-20 Obi Toppin led Dayton Flyers had 63.8% of their minutes returning from the prior season and averaged 2.13 years of experience on their way to unprecedented success for that program. The 2020-21 Loyola Chicago Ramblers that went on a run to the Sweet 16 also were above the 50%/2-year threshold, returning 69.5% of their minutes and averaging 2.54 years of experience. It is clear though that having experienced returners to a team is not a guarantee of success. It is more important than ever for college coaches to be able to quickly integrate new pieces on their team these days. Having some continuity is ok, but relying on the same team to find the same success year to year does not seem to be something you can rely for success.
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