Anarchy? No, it’s just the Atlantic 10 tournament. We have all seen our teams finish their 18 (or 17) games in Atlantic 10 play and now our attention turns to the nation’s capital, where anyone can win the conference’s automatic birth to the NCAA Tournament. But can anyone actually win it? Probably not. While only one first seed has won the conference tournament in the past 10 iterations, outside of the seventh seeded Saint Louis Billikens in 2018-19 no team below the fifth seed has cut down the nets to win the A10 Tournament Championship.
Let’s disregard all that though! Each team in the A10 has a chance to cut down the nets come Sunday. It may not be a very large chance, but it is a chance nonetheless. With that contrast being eternal optimism based on some Jon Rothstein tweet and calculated pragmatism , let’s examine why your favorite team is simultaneously definitely punching it’s ticket for March Madness and has no shot of winning a single game and really belonged in the Pillow Fight.
(Special thanks to @SBUnfurled for letting me use the “Sickos” logos he made!)
Why Duquesne will win: Uh, Primo is a pretty cool name I guess? In a conference that was home to Bones, Scoochie and Fatts, Primo definitely takes its place among the great names in A10 history. Spears and the rest of the young Duquesne Dukes have had a miserable season, going 6-23 this year. The slickly named Spears and Jackie Johnson have provided the occasional bright spark for the inexperienced Duquesne team, who rank 354th in experience on KenPom. Spears has been able to set up teammates for baskets this season, earning a 20% assist rate while Jackie Johnson has shot above average from the perimeter, hitting 37% from three point range this season. On the other side of the ball, the Dukes allow one of the fewest shares of field goals attempted from three-point range in the country with a three-point attempt rate conceded of 31.9% though opponents are hitting over 39.5% of those threes, one of the highest 3-point % ‘s conceded in the country.
Why Duquesne won’t win: It is admittedly tough to pick a reason why Duquesne won’t win the A10 tournament. Not because they lack compelling reasons to doubt them, rather there are so many reasons why it is unlikely the Dukes will even make it past their Pillow Fight match up that it is tough to pick the biggest reason. The Dukes finished A10 play 270th in offensive efficiency in the country and 284th in defensive efficiency on KenPom. They take a ton of mid-range shots, 32.5% of all their field goal attempts which is the 2nd most in the conference, and they average 0.65 points per possession on those shots. Duquesne allows opponents to score more than average at the rim and from three point range. Finally, they allow opponents to score the most points per possession on transition at 1.41 and score the fewest points per possession on their transition opportunities at 1.13. The season will likely end mercifully quickly for the Dukes in Washington.
Why Saint Joseph’s will win: When Saint Joe’s fans espoused unbridled optimism in October, much of it was down to thinking of Jordan Hall and Taylor Funk leading a potent offense while tightening up a defense that struggled last year. Even though Hall and Funk have continued to shoot an above average percentage from three point range, we’ll discuss them further in the next section (which might be an indicator on how things have gone). However, the latter point has somewhat come to fruition! They are by no means the Ben Wallace era Pistons, but the Hawks have gone from the 230th ranked defense on KenPom last season to 114th this season. Folks, that makes them an above average D1 average defense. Saint Joe’s do well keeping opponents off the three-point line, where Hawks’ foes only take 31% of their field goal attempts and only hit 31.8% of those threes. St. Joe’s opponents do score an above average percentage of their shots at the rim, but Billy Lange’s team forces opponents into a mid-range shot more than shots at the rim and from three. The respectable defense combined with the emergence of Erik Reynolds and consistent contributions from Ejike Obinna are some positive steps on Hawk Hill.
Why Saint Joseph’s won’t win: We discussed above that Saint Joe’s have turned a bad defense into a more than respectable outfit this season, but what has not changed from last season to this is the Hawks continuing to fire up three point shots with reckless abandon. The Hawks have seen their 3-point % increase this season to 33.8% from 31.4% last season, but that is still only slightly above the national average. The Hawks still miss plenty of threes while they take 45.1% of all their field goal attempts from beyond the three-point line, 34th most in the country. While Taylor Funk and Jordan Hall have hit an above average number of their three point attempts, the two who so many Saint Joe’s fans pinned their hopes on haven’t contributed enough elsewhere on offense. Hall’s offensive rating and true shooting % have remained nearly identical to last year while only hitting 44% of his two-point field goals this season. Funk has improved his three-point shooting % by 1.9% this season compared to last but has 9.4% less shots at the rim this season and is making 32.7% less of those shots. Reynolds has impressed as a freshman on Hawk Hill but with Taylor Funk out injured and without Jordan Hall providing more consistent scoring, there’s not much chance of Saint Joe’s getting very far in DC.
Why La Salle will win: Clifton Moore! It has been another rough season at Tom Gola Arena, with the Explorers not winning any game outside of the state of Pennsylvania. Despite that, it has been a very good season for Senior Clifton Moore. The Explorers bigman has scored at least 10 points a game in every Atlantic 10 game but one. Moore has averaged 13.0 points, 6.3 rebounds and 2.8 blocks per game this season. He is scoring an impressive 1.39 points per possession on shots at the rim and has been able to effectively hit non-rim 2-point field goals this season averaging an above average 46.4% of those shots. Moore’s 10.2% block rate is the 27th best in the country. The 6’10 Moore helps lead the La Salle rim defense where the Explorers as a team block 11.5% of shots faced and only allow teams to score 54.4% of shots at the rim, about 6% lower than the average D1 team.
Why La Salle Won’t Win: Moore’s play as well as flashes from Josh Nickelberry and Jhamir Brickus have been bright spots in another year in the Pillow Fight for La Salle, but the Explorers form over the season have people wondering if Ashley Howard’s time on Olney Avenue is coming to an end (though the speculation on the Gola Boys podcast that Howard got an extension after going .500 in the Covid cancellation season is wild). The Explorers have struggled on both sides of the floor this season. They are among the 100 worst division 1 teams this season in effective field goal %, free throw rate and three point % (while taking 40.5% of their field goal attempts from the perimeter). La Salle have sent opponents to the free throw line the second most among A10 teams and Explorer opponents have hit their three’s nearly 3% more than the league average from the perimeter. Even if Clifton Moore continues his excellent play, it will likely be a quick train ride to DC and back to Philly for La Salle.
Why Rhode Island will win: Having one player who is among the top 75 players in the country in block rate would be daunting for opponents, but having an identical twin who is top 20 in the country in block rate? Rhody opponents know there won’t be many easy buckets at the rim when taking on the Rams. This season teams are only shooting 50.2% on those shots at the rim, roughly 10% lower than the average division 1 team in the country. As mentioned above, the Mitchell twins have two of the highest block rates in the country, with Makhi blocking 7.2% of shots faced and Makhel blocking 11.2% of shots. Opponents make 4.7% less shots at the rim when a Mitchell twin is on the court compared to when they are not. Any Rhody opponent in DC will pay the physical toll trying to score at the hoop.
Why Rhode Island won’t win: As tough and physical as the Rhode Island defense is, the Rhody offense can really get bogged down at times. Now the Rams do score the ball at an above average rate at the rim at 62.4% and take more shots at the rim than anywhere else. They also convert shots from the perimeter at an average rate at 33.8%. The problem is that they take one of the lowest ratios of total shots from three point range in the country at 28.8%. They might be able to take more threes and shots at the rim if they weren’t constantly throwing the ball around, turning the ball over on 20.4% of their possessions. Finally, attacking the rim with the strong physical squad the Rams has leads to plenty of free throw opportunities, as their 36.8% free throw rate is 37th in the country but their free throw % of 62.3% is third-worst in the entire country. Rhody will likely restrict scoring for A10 opponents in DC but will probably score less than they concede as they have many times this season.
Why UMass will win: It was a bit of a struggle trying to find justification for Duquesne to pull off the impossible and win the Atlantic 10 tournament, but envisioning a lame-duck Matt McCall leading the Minutemen to the title is perhaps even more difficult to picture. Maybe there’s some “win this one for the Gipper” that UMass can tap into, but since many envisioned this as a do-or-die season for McCall before it started I’m not sure there’s much reason to expect it in DC. However, the clear and obvious path to a memorable but unlikely UMass Cinderella run to the auto bid begins and ends with their perimeter shooting. The entire conference knows exactly what the UMass offense will do, but the Minutemen are still able to usually execute, taking 43.5% of their field goal attempts from three and hitting 37.3% of those shots from deep, the 32nd best rate in the entire country. Though UMass is below average in scoring at the rim and from the midrange, they do also manage to get plenty of free throw opportunities with an above average free throw rate of 33.3%. When they are at the line the Minutemen convert their opportunities, hitting 75.6% of their free throws which is good for 51st in the country.
Why UMass won’t win: To be a team that is one of the best three point shooting teams in the country and announce you coach won’t be back before the end of the season, you must have some serious flaws. The red letter issue for UMass is their putrid defense. As impressive as the Minutemen’s perimeter shooting is, their opponents have somehow shot a higher percentage from three point range this season at 37.5%. It has been a conga line to the rim for Minutemen opponents this year, taking 41.1% of their shots at the rim and hitting 64.1% of those shots which is about 4% higher than average. On the other side of the ball, UMass’ three point shooting has propelled them to a top 60 offense in the country, but if you can run them off the line there isn’t much else to the UMass offense. Towards the end of the season, opponents were able to keep the Minutemen away from the perimeter with 3 of 4 opponents forcing UMass shooting below their season average three point attempt rate (and Dayton had them below this as well until garbage time in the 21 point loss for UMass). The Minutemen score 56.7% of their shots at the rim and 34.6% of their mid-range field goal attempts, both numbers well below average. If UMass can’t find a way to stop the bleeding on defense and counter recent opponents’ ability to stop them from firing from three point range, McCall’s tenure will end quietly.
Why George Mason will win: Last season, 69.1% of George Mason’s shots were either at the rim or a three. This season they are taking 79.1% of their shots from those same locations. The Dave Paulsen led Patriots last season hit 64.2% of their field goal attempts at the rim and 33.3% of their shots from deep. This season those same numbers have improved to 64.8% at the rim and 36.2% from three, and those improvements are why Mason has jumped to a top 100 offense nationally under Kim English. The new Mason head coach has been able to surround player of the year candidate Josh Oduro with shooters that force opponents to either try and stop Oduro or contest the shot of any of the four above average perimeter shooters that are part of the George Mason rotation. Oduro scores 1.41 points per shot or 70.8% of his field goal attempts at the rim, so it is only natural for opposing coaches to consider double teaming him. They do that at their peril though, as that can lead to a wide open shot from three for D’Shawn Schwartz, DeVon Cooper, Ticket Gaines or Xavier Johnson who are shooting 38.2%, 40.2%, 41.5% and 35.0% from three point range this season respectively. Mason going inside out puts opponents in a tough position that often leads to an Oduro basket or open three point attempt.
Why George Mason won’t win: As good as Mason is at getting quality looks from the perimeter, they give nearly as many open threes to opponents. This season, George Mason opponents take 43% of their field goal attempts from behind the three point line, one of the highest percentages in the country. These opponents are hitting an above average 34.6% of those three point attempts. A10 opponents have fared even better from three-point range where they have hit 36.2% of their threes. In addition to three-point defense, while for much of the season the complimenting pieces around Josh Oduro have benefitted from playing with him, some of those pieces have struggled lately. Ticket Gaines and DeVon Cooper in particular have struggled, with Cooper not scoring more than 5 points in his four of his last six games and Gaines not putting up more than 8 points in four of his last six as well. Cooper has the highest three-point % on George Mason but in those last six games has only hit 32% of his threes. Gaines also struggled offensively lately, only hitting 30% of field goal attempts from two-point range. If Ticket Gaines, DeVon Cooper and the rest of the George Mason complimentary players can’t right their poor form lately, it might be too much to ask Josh Oduro to do everything in a possible A10 Tournament run for Mason.
Why Fordham will win: Count me among those on A10 twitter who aren’t Fordham fans but have really admired what Kyle Neptune has done in his first year at Fordham. Neptune has led the Rams to both the most wins and most conference wins in a season in six seasons. This Fordham squad has many of the same pieces that Jeff Neubauer had last season, which is my polite way to say it is not chalk full of talent. Yet, Neptune has been able to emphasize what the Rams do best to take them out of the basement of Atlantic 10. And what Fordham does best is play tough defense. Only VCU, Dayton and Rhode Island have a better KenPom defensive efficiency rating in conference play than Fordham. The Rams force turnovers on 20.1% of opponents possessions, which is among the top 100 teams in the country. They lock down the perimeter and the rim ferociously, with opponents only hitting 31.4% of three-point attempts and 56.4% of shots at the rim. Not only do opponents struggle to hit threes against Fordham, they do well running opponents off the line as Fordham’s foes have only taken 34.3% of their field goal attempts from three-point range. No matter who is on the other end of the court, Fordham is going to make scoring difficult for them.
Why Fordham won’t win: The Rams defense deserves to be mentioned with the top defensive teams in the conference like VCU and Dayton. The lack of talent on the roster really shows when Fordham has the ball though. Fordham possessions often meander on and end in a hasty three point attempt that does not go in. The Rams are only hitting 30.3% of their attempts from the perimeter, which ranks 319th in the country. Yet despite the poor shooting, Fordham takes 42.8% of their field goal attempts from three-point range which is the 64th highest in the country. The Rams just don’t have many other options. They shoot 56.6% from shots at the rim and 27.7% from mid-range shots, both well below the national average. Fordham have been able to ugly it up enough on defense to get out of the A10 basement but frequently haven’t been able to muck it up enough to get over .500 in the conference and probably won’t be able to cut the nets down in DC.
Why George Washington will win: In his third season at Foggy Bottom, some hope has started to develop for George Washington under Jamion Christian. The Colonials have won the most conference games while being under Christian this season and that improvement has come from solidifying the GW defense. Last year’s edition of the Colonials had trouble stopping anyone so improving to an average defense has really brought up the floor for GW. Much of this solidifying defensively and overall for George Washington this season has been the emergence of two newcomers in transfer from Virginia Tech Joe Bamisile and freshman Brayon Freeman. The help these two have provided the Colonials on the defensive end is shown in their numbers with Freeman getting a steal on 2.8% of opposition’s possessions and Bamisile block rate and steal rate of 3.1% and 2.3% respectively. Creating these turnovers helps GW utilize transition opportunities, which make up 18.91% of all their possessions on offense and the average scoring 1.34 points per possession on those transition opportunities. Getting their two newcomers going on both ends of the court would be a good first step in any GW success in DC.
Why George Washington won’t win: In any hypothetical George Washington march to the A10 title in their own backyard, they’d presumably have to knock off some of the top teams in the conference to get there. If they were able to do that, it would be a change from the regular season as GW have only beaten two teams this season in the KenPom top 150 (Rhode Island and George Mason). While the Colonials have certainly improved compared to last season, it has come by beating lower ranked teams. Now, there’s nothing wrong with that! It certainly beats losing to those teams, but it doesn’t inspire confidence that GW will be able to rip off four wins despite only having to go a few Metro stops to play. Given that the Colonials have the worst offensive rating in half-court situations at 87.11, shoot a below average 33.4% from three-point range and only have a free throw rate of 25.6% which ranks them 306th in the country, it doesn’t seem likely the Colonials will win the hometown conference tournament.
Why Richmond will win: Coming into the season we all mostly knew what we would get from Richmond. Jacob Gilyard running point, Grant Golden scoring and assisting from the post and Nick Sherod bombing away from the perimeter. This indeed has been the case for the Spiders, but the emergence of Tyler Burton as an all-conference player has added another dynamic for the Spiders. The long tenured Spiders all are good in their own right, but have flaws in their game that have seen Richmond fall short of their goals. Burton however is the all-around great player that raises the ceiling of a program. He’s one of the best finishers at the rim in the conference, scoring 1.43 points per possession on those shots by hitting 71.6% of those field goals at the rim. He’s a great perimeter shooter, hitting 38.2% of three-point attempts this season while taking 38.7% of his shots from deep. He gets to the free throw line with regularity and hits his free throws 78.9% of the time. He’s equally as talented on the defensive side of the ball, with both a block and steal rate of nearly 2% each. When Burton is on the court, Richmond is 16.5 points per 100 possessions better than when he is off. He is the type of player that can carry a team to a conference tournament title.
Why Richmond won’t win: Burton is indeed a special player to add to a solid squad like Richmond. However, like the years where the core of the Spiders have been in place, it hasn’t been enough to get them over the hump in the conference. The floor is high for Richmond with this roster, but the ceiling doesn’t appear to be much higher and it is down to the Spiders being flat track bullies. This season they are 2-6 against the other top 6 teams in the conference. They shoot 4.1% worse from the field and 5.6% from three point range in these games, while their top 6 foes shoot better than Richmond averages on defense in both those categories. In these games, the Spiders average 9.5 points per 100 possessions less on offense than their season average and allow 6.51 points per 100 possessions more than their season average. In DC, Richmond may avoid some of these teams but in order to cut down the nets they will likely have to play one of the top teams. To this point they haven’t shown they can compete with them.
Why Saint Louis will win: Many say it is tough to be the guy after the guy. However, a year after SLU mainstays like Jordan Goodwin and Hasahn French moved on from the program, Yuri Collins has emerged and shown he can handle the weight of being the guy for the Billikens. The sophomore has emerged as one of the best guards in the conference and that’s apparent in his stats. Collins’ 43% assist rate is the second highest in the country. His 3.5% steal rate is among the top 100 for all D1 players. Not only is Collins turning opponents over and setting up his teammates, he has become a more efficient scorer in his own right, improving his true shooting % by 6.2% to 54.1% from last season to this season. This has largely come from Collins going from a 24.1% three-point shooter last season to a 38.2% this season. Collins has led a consistent SLU team that can beat you a wide variety of ways, with the Billikens 110.76 offensive rating second best in the conference and 94.75 defensive rating fifth best in the A10. This is a team that doesn’t have a glaring weakness to exploit, which combined with a point guard like Yuri Collins, makes them candidates to be able to match up with different styles that they would face in a tournament setting.
Why Saint Louis won’t win: So SLU is a well rounded team, with solid underlying numbers and elite point guard play. And yet, here they sit in fifth place in the conference having to win 4 games in 4 days to earn the A10 auto-bid. Why? One reason might be distribution of shots for the Billikens. Now this isn’t a “take too many mid-range shots” offensive issue, as SLU take the second lowest percentage of their total shots from non-rim 2-point field goal attempts in the conference. However, when we look at how the Billikens do at the rim and from three-point range, it requires a little deeper dive to see a possible issue. The Billikens take the highest proportion of their shots at the rim in all the conference at 43%, but are scoring slightly below average points per possession in those attempts at 1.18. To further highlight that maybe the Billikens force things in the paint, 11.7% of their shots have been blocked this season which is one of the highest block rates in the country. Meanwhile from the perimeter, SLU has the second highest three-point % this season in the conference at 36.5% but by far and away have the lowest three-point attempt rate in the conference at 30.4%. That attempt rate from the perimeter is a whole 7% lower the A10 average. Now if SLU starts to take more threes, that percentage will almost inevitably go down but they would still likely be an above average three point shooting team. Trying to repeatedly run headfirst into Hason Ward, Osun Osunniyi or DaRon Holmes is a tough task, but going inside out to create more open threes for the Gibson Jimmerson’s and Yuri Collins of the world might be a way to negate that. To this point of the season though, the Billikens have not done that.
Why St. Bonaventure will win: Given they are the reigning Atlantic 10 tournament champions, most know already how the Bonnies could repeat the feat. Maybe you haven’t heard but Bona plays the fewest bench minutes in the country, with the Bonnies bench only accounting for 11.7% of their total minutes. So the Bonnies will need to rely on their talented starting lineup to bring them to back to back A10 Tournament titles. They will need Jalen Adaway to continue to be an efficient scorer anywhere on the court, with Adaway shooting 68% at the rim, 42.6% from the midrange and 37.9% from three-point range. They will need Dom Welch to continue to be a perimeter threat, as he has hit 35.8% of his threes this season. Kyle Lofton and Jaren Holmes need to continue to be able to set up their teammates on offense, with nationally ranked assist rates of 28.2% and 18.1% each. Perhaps most importantly, Osun Osunniyi needs to anchor the defense and continue to lock down opponents at the rim. This season, St. Bonaventure opponents have only shot 59.9% on shots at the rim and that’s mostly down to Osun and his 12.4% block rate. Opposing offenses shoot 3.7% worse at the rim and take 2.8% less attempts at the rim when Osun is on the court compared to when he is off. Defense like that helped lead the Bonnies to the A10 tournament crown last season and can do so again.
Why St. Bonaventure won’t win: Given I’ve already written a thousand words on the Bonnies three point defense, I’ll only mention in passing here that Bona opponents are taking 45.3% of their shots from three point range and hitting 34.2% of those shots. In addition, everyone already knows the shorter than short bench Mark Schmidt employs but the issues that appear with such a short bench have shown their face this season whenever one of the starters for St. Bonaventure was absent due to injury. In the blowout loss to Virginia Tech that did not feature Kyle Lofton the Bonnies only had 8 assists as a team. More recently, Osun Osunniyi missed the second matchup with VCU that the Rams won by 23 and scored on 75% of their shots at the rim, 15% higher than their season average. Given Osun’s health is still a question and you can often see the effect of three or four games in the same amount of days on a team with a short rotation, you easily can see the Bonnies giving a good effort in DC but running out of gas before the finish line.
Why VCU will win: It isn’t news to even casual Atlantic 10 fans that VCU have a lockdown defense. As impressive as some VCU teams have been on the defensive end over the years, some of the metrics this season suggest this squad deserves to be mentioned with some of the top defensive Rams teams over history. VCU’s KenPom defensive efficiency of 87.7 is 4th in the entire country. Their 25.5% turnover rate on defense is 2nd among all D1 teams. Needless to say, it’s a battle to try and score on VCU on every possession. The issue early in the season for the Rams though was on offense. In non-conference play, VCU averaged an offensive rating of 87.75, the worst in the conference. In the games since though, their offensive rating has jumped up to 99.95. Much of that improvement is down to the play of Vince Williams and Ace Baldwin’s return to the lineup. During the early days it was tough to score for the Rams, the burden of the offense fell almost solely on Williams and he was able to shoulder that burden. He is an efficient scorer, distributor and rebounder putting up a 58% effective field goal %, 20.2% assist rate and 16.9% defensive rebound %. He can score from anywhere on the court, hitting 67.7% of his shots at the rim, 42.1% from the midrange and 38% of his threes. William’s burden on offense was lifted when Ace Baldwin returned, who has become a deadeye shooter from the perimeter. Ace has increased his three-point attempt rate by 3.4% from last year while improving his three-point % by 12.1%, hitting 42.2% of his threes this year. His 33.4% assist rate is among the top 30 in the entire country. The best illustration of how much more effective VCU’s offense is with Williams and Ace is they score 9.41 points per 100 possessions more with Vince Williams on the court and 18.59 points per 100 more with Ace playing. The elite defense the Rams always seem to have combined with the play on offense from Vince Williams and Ace Baldwin make them a real threat in DC.
Why VCU won’t win: Despite all-conference performances from Vince Williams and Ace Baldwin, the VCU offense is still below average in the conference. This isn’t down to poor shooting though as on aggregate, the Rams are hitting an above average percentage of their shots from two point and three point range. Getting those shots without turning the ball over is the big issue for the VCU offense though. Their 22.1% turnover rate for the season is among the highest in the entire country. Opponents cause plenty of turnovers against the Rams, stealing the ball on 11.2% of Rams offensive possessions. VCU also has too many unforced errors as well, with a non-steal turnover rate of 10.9%. With their turnover problems, the Rams sometimes aren’t finding the extra points on the court when they are able to hold onto the ball. VCU has one of the lower offensive rebound rates in the conference at 26.8%, so they aren’t squeezing out extra possessions that way. They shoot a below average 69.4% from the free throw line. Despite hitting an above average percentage of threes, they only take a far below average 29.7% of their field goal attempts from the perimeter. We know we’ll get intense defense from the Rams and solid offensive play from Vince Williams and Ace, but their glaring flaws might come back to haunt them against higher powered teams in the conference.
Why Dayton will win: There is something to be said about a team that has already won three games in three days as Dayton did in Orlando against Miami, Kansas and Belmont. After the oft discussed 1-3 start for the Flyers, these games showed both that there was more to the Flyers than they showed in their early three losses and how Dayton would be able to compete with anyone. After allowing Lipscomb to score 120 points per 100 possessions and Austin Peay 119, Dayton has drastically turned things around on defense to where their 95.7 KenPom defensive efficiency rating is the 43rd best in the country. In conference play, that same defensive efficiency metric is 91.9 which is second best in the conference. Dayton’s turnaround on defense begins and ends with A10 freshman of the year candidates DaRon Holmes and Malachi Smith as well as Georgia transfer Toumani Camara. Holmes has become a shot blocking dynamo in his first year at Dayton, blowing out the single season block record for the Flyers. His 9% block rate ranks 38th nationally and opponents shoot 6.5% better at the rim when Holmes is off the court than when he is on. In addition to putting up impressive assist numbers in his first season, Malachi Smith has also been able to become a tough perimeter defender and his 3.6% steal rate is among the top 100 in the entire country. Toumani Camara has shown the ability to guard any position when on the court and has 3.1% block rate and 1.9% steal rate of his own. The turnovers these three and the rest of the Flyers are able to create help lead to easy transition buckets for Dayton, who have the highest points per 100 possessions of any A10 team in transition at 147.97 and have the third most transition opportunities in the conference.
Why Dayton won’t win: While the Dayton team now hardly resembles that team that lost to UMass Lowell, Lipscomb and Austin Peay, the main issue that plagued the Flyers in those losses still remains today. In each of those three losses, Dayton had at least a 20% turnover rate and the Flyers turnover rate currently is at 19.6%, which ranks them 255th in the country. Opponents have been able to utilize Dayton continuing to turn the ball over, with Flyers opponents averaging 134.47 points per 100 possessions on transition, with only Duquesne and UMass conceding a higher defensive rating in transition. Dayton’s opponents steal the ball at a slightly above average rate and the Flyers have non-steal turnovers on 10.1% on possessions, but opponents’ block rate of 10.9% is one of the highest in the country. The Flyers take 40.39% of their shots at the rim, so some blocks are going to happen. However, for a team that has as many shots at the rim and as many of those shots blocked, Dayton doesn’t utilize the free throw line enough. The Flyers have an average free throw rate of 30.8% and a well below average free throw % of 68.2%. In a conference with plenty of great shot blockers, the Flyers need to find a way to either neutralize some of those rim protectors or cash in at the free throw line more. With as much talent that Dayton has, their turnover issues and free throw problems are certainly enough to send Dayton home from DC without the hardware.
Why Davidson will win: Going nearly wire to wire in conference play, another classic Bob McKillop coaching job brings the A10 regular season conference title to Belk Arena. The Wildcats were able to thrive thanks largely to the surgically precise offense we have become accustomed to. A 117.5 KenPom offensive efficiency for the Wildcats ranks 10th in the entire country. The deliberate pace Davidson works at allows Bob McKillop’s motion offense to get the best shot, with 80.75% of their field goal attempts coming from either threes or at the rim. Four rotation pieces in Hyunjung Lee, Foster Loyer, Michael Jones, and Luka Brajkovic are shooting above 38% from the perimeter. Lee, Loyer and Jones take at least half of their shots from three and the Wildcats have a three-point attempt rate of 41.1% where they hit 38.5% of those attempts. If opponents try to keep Davidson off the three-point line, the Wildcats are just as efficient down low where they hit 62.46% of shots at the rim. They value the ball, only turning over the ball on 15.1% of possessions and they get to the free throw line at an above average free throw rate of 32.7%. To pair with this whirling death machine of an offense, Davidson has some pieces on defense that can makes some plays. With so many tough defensive teams in the A10, the Wildcats defensive rating is slightly below the conference average, yet there’s some signs of an ability to get stops when it counts most. Opposing teams have only hit 54.4% of their shots at the rim this season. Davidson’s stout rim defense is led by player of the year candidate Luka Brajkovic, who has a block rate of 5.1% this season and when on the court Davidson gives up 11.27 points per 100 possessions less. While Bob McKillop’s squad forces a below average number of steals and blocks, the Wildcats have an above average 9.7% non-steal turnover rate on defense. This overwhelming offense and solid defense led by Luka Brajkovic was enough to lead the Wildcats to a regular season title and has to put them as one of the favorites to do the double in DC.
Why Davidson won’t win: In four of their last five games, Davidson have been without point guard Foster Loyer. Now, the Wildcats have won 4 of those 5 games but any team will miss a player with a 58.2% effective field goal %, 22.4% assist rate, 38.9% free throw rate, and a 45% shooter from three-point range. If we compare when Loyer is on the court to when he is off, Davidson is 5.49 points per 100 better on offense and 1.22 points per 100 overall better with Loyer on the court. Along with the health of Foster Loyer, while the Davidson defense is somewhere between slightly above average to slightly below average, there are a few areas that can be exploited. Wildcats opponents have taken 44.2% of their shots from three point range and hit 34.5% of them. Both of those figures are above average, so a good perimeter shooting team will likely get plenty of looks from deep to try and keep up with Davidson. In a single game sample, a team getting hot from three-point range can end a tournament run.
So there you have it, definitive proof why your favorite Atlantic 10 team will be cutting down the nets Sunday/heading home early(delete as appropriate). There will be plenty of interesting matchups with teams with contrasting styles that will try and emphasize their strengths and limit their weaknesses, both of which you are now more aware of after reading every one of the 6,000+ words here. Of course I am hoping my favorite team is the one cutting down the nets Sunday, but at the risk of upsetting Davidson Twitter, I am hoping the eventual champion is not the Wildcats so presumably the A10 gets multiple bids. In saying that, it is my biased opinion the conference deserves more than one bid even if Davidson do add the tournament championship to their regular season title. As of writing, three A10 teams have positive wins above the bubble according to Bart Torvik. Yet because the NCAA selection committee relies on the flawed NET ranking, the Atlantic 10 getting multiple bids largely comes down to whether anyone besides Davidson is able to bring home the tournament championship.
A10 Stats 
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